The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.2 billion passengers to travel in 2035, a near doubling of the 3.8 billion air travellers in 2016. The prediction is based on a 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR).

The forecast for passenger growth confirms that the biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected to be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next 20 years. According to the forecast, China will displace the U.S. as the world’s largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) around 2024.

India could displace the UK for third place by 2025, while Indonesia is expected to enter the top ten at the expense of Italy. Growth will also increasingly be driven within developing markets. Over the past decade the developing world’s share of total passenger traffic has risen from 24% to nearly 40%, and this trend is set to continue.

The 20-year forecast puts forward three scenarios. The central scenario foresees a doubling of passengers with a 3.7% annual CAGR. If trade liberalization gathers pace, demand could triple the 2015 level. Conversely, if the current trend towards trade protectionism gathers strength, growth could cool to 2.5% annual CAGR which would see passenger numbers reach 5.8 billion by 2035.

IATA notes that, whatever scenario is eventually realized, growth will put pressure on infrastructure that is already struggling to cope with demand. 

The five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers per year, based on the central growth scenario, will be:

• China (817 million new passengers for a total of 1.3 billion),
• U.S. (484 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion),
• India (322 million new passengers for a total of 442 million),
• Indonesia (135 million new passengers for a total of 242 million),
• Vietnam (112 million new passengers for a total of 150 million).

The top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa: Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar. Each of these markets is expected to grow by more than 8% each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.

In terms of growth by region, Africa leads the way with 5.1%, followed by the Middle East (4.8%), Asia-Pacific (4.7%), North America (2.8%) and Europe (2.5%).