In the latest update to their 20-year market forecast, Teal Group space analysts have identified 5,095 satellites, probes and capsules to be built and launched to Earth or deep space orbits between 2016 and 2035. They estimate the value of these space payloads at more than $245bn.
The payload count for 2016-2035 reflects a 10% increase compared to the 4,607 payloads identified last year for 2015-2034. The trend in the future market for space payloads continues upward, driven largely by the introduction of hundreds of small, nano and pico commercial satellites designed to provide everything from broadband and mobile communications to meteorological, imaging and position location & tracking services. Teal analysts identify 662 payloads "proposed" for launch in 2016, followed by 760 in 2017.
In their latest update by spacecraft type, Teal analysts classified 3,036 of the payloads as commercial, 1,126 as civil (government non-military), 602 as military, and 331 as university and non-profit.
Of the payloads, more than 81% are proposed for low earth orbits (LEO), and the rest to geostationary, medium earth orbits (MEO), deep space, and elliptical. "It's going to get extremely crowded at LEO," comments Teal Group senior space analyst Marco Cáceres.