In its latest Current Market Outlook, Boeing projects a demand for 39,620 new airplanes over the next 20 years, an increase of 4.1% over last year's forecast. The total value of those new airplanes is estimated at $5.9 trillion.
Boeing sees the market being underpinned by 4.8% annual growth in passenger traffic over the period. The single-aisle market is expected to be especially strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets driving growth. 28,140 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of more than 5% over last year.
On the widebody side, 9,100 airplanes are in the forecast, with a large wave of potential replacement demand in the 2021- 2028 time frame. Boeing projects a continued shift from very large airplanes to small and medium widebodies.
With cargo traffic forecasted to grow at 4.2 percent per year, Boeing projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.
Boeing predicts that the Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades :
- Asia 15,130 airplane deliveries
- North America 8,330
- Europe 7,570
- Middle East 3,310
- Latin America 2,960
- C.I.S. 1,170
- Africa 1,150
As if to bring home the point, Boeing unveiled commitments from two Chinese airlines on the opening day of the Farnborough show. Donghai Airlines announced its intent to purchase 25 737 MAX 8s and five 787-9 Dreamliners, an agreement valued at more than $4bn at current list prices. Xiamen Airlines signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the purchase of up to 30 737 MAX 200 airplanes, valued at up to $3.4bn at current list prices.