Bombardier Business Aircraft (BBA) expects 8,300 business jet deliveries over the next 10 years valued at $250bn. The company released the latest edition of its 10-year forecast for the private aviation market at the European Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition (EBACE) in Geneva.
In 2016, deliveries are forecasted to be down around 10% (at 540-560 units) as OEMs realign to market demand. Deliveries stabilized at 607 aircraft (+1%) in 2015, a year marked by continued slowdown in emerging markets.
World GDP growth is expected to pick up, crossing the 3% threshold in 2017 as emerging markets recover and stabilize. Significant growth is expected in the long term, with larger aircraft continuing to dominate the market. Emerging markets like Latin America, China and Russia are expected to be key drivers to future growth as present challenges in these markets subside.
BBA expects North America will account for the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2016 and 2025 with 3,930 aircraft (valued at $105bn), followed by Europe, which remains the second largest market with 1,530 deliveries ($55bn), and Latin America (790 deliveries worth $20bn).
Forecasts for other regions include:
- Greater China: 700 deliveries (including 90% in the Medium and Large categories), valued at $25bn,
- Middle East: 350 deliveries (95% Medium and Large), $12bn,
- South Asia: 200 deliveries, $8bn,
- Asia Pacific: 200 deliveries, $7bn.
Large category aircraft are expected to represent half of overall revenues over the 10-year period, at $130bn (2,400 aircraft), while Medium and Light aircraft will amount to $84bn (2,800 aircraft) and $36bn (3,100 aircraft), respectively.