At Airshow China 2016, Airbus is highlighting forecasts for growth in the Asia-Pacific region.
In the latest market forecast, Airbus predicts that the region will account for 13,239 new deliveries through 2035 (40% of global demand), including almost 6,000 for China.
The Asia-Pacific market share is more than that of Europe (20%) and North America (17%) combined. The total Asia-Pacific fleet is expected to increase from 5,659 to 14,685 over this period.
Among the main growth drivers identified by Airbus:
- Asia-Pacific will continue to lead world economic growth according to forecast, with an average real GDP growth of 4.1% per year over the next 20 years.
- Domestic sources of growth, particularly private consumption, will play a larger role in coming years. In China for example, private consumption will grow to contribute just over 40% of China’s total GDP.
- Chinese middle class households already exceed the number in the US, and will be more than double by 2024.
- Deregulation will continue to play a role in driving growth in the region. The number of routes between China and ASEAN states has more than doubled since 2009 for example.
- Low cost carriers, whilst present and playing a role in increasing the accessibility of aviation in the region, have opportunity to grow inter-regionally. Some 25% of Asian inter-region seats are flown by these airlines, compared with over 40% in Europe. China and Japan in particular have a lower share than other Asian countries like Malaysia and the Philippines.