The world’s passenger aircraft fleet above 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to over 40,000 planes as traffic is set to grow at 4.4% per year, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast, covering the period 2017-2036.

Over this period, increasing numbers of first-time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalisation, new routes and evolving airline business models are expected to generate a need for 34,170 passenger and 730 freighter aircraft worth a combined total of $5.3 trillion. Airbus predicts that over 70% of new units will be single aisle with 60% for growth and 40% for replacement of less fuel-efficient aircraft. 

A doubling in the commercial fleet over the next 20 years represents a need for 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers.

Air traffic growth is forecast to be highest in emerging markets such as China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America and almost double the 3.2% per year growth forecast in mature markets such as North America and Western Europe.

Over the next 20 years Asia Pacific is set to take 41% of new deliveries, followed by Europe with 20 percent and North America at 16%. Middle class numbers are expected to almost double, to nearly five billion, as wealth creation makes aviation even more accessible particularly in emerging economies where spending on air travel services is set to double. 

In the twin-aisle segment, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 10,100 aircraft valued at $2.9 trillion. In the single-aisle segment, Airbus sees a market for over 24,800 aircraft valued at $2.4 trillion.