Airbus predicts that Latin America will need 2,540 new passenger and freighter aircraft between 2015 and 2034, to meet long-term growth in the region. According to the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) — released at Chile’s FIDAE Air Show — this demand includes 1,990 single-aisle and 550 widebody aircraft, worth an estimated $330bn. This demand will mean that the passenger and freighter fleet operated by the region’s airlines will more than double to nearly 3,000 aircraft in the next 20 years.
The GMF estimates that Latin America’s traffic will grow at an average of 4.7% annually in the next 20 years, above the world average of 4.6%. Driving this growth are airlines domiciled in the region growing at 5.0% annually, placing them among the world’s top three fastest-growing groups of airlines.
The region’s urbanization is a factor propelling this growth, as Latin America is one of the most urbanized in the world second only to North America, with some 80% of its population living in cities. Consistent economic growth will also prompt traffic growth in the region; according to the GMF, in the next 20 years, Latin America’s annual GDP is forecast to grow at a rate of 3.6%, above the world’s 3.2%.
Airbus — which currently claims 53% of the region’s in-service fleet — notes that the long-haul market presents a solid opportunity for Latin American carriers to claim back market share. Today, European and North American airlines carry the majority of long-haul traffic into and out of the region, at 83% and 75%, respectively. In fact, according to the GMF, the traffic flows between South America and Western Europe and between South America and the United States are forecast to be two of the world’s largest international traffic flows by 2034.
Intra-regional and domestic market within Latin America also holds tremendous growth potential given that traffic is expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years, growing at 5.3%. Only 43 percent of the region’s top 20 cities are connected by one daily flight, leaving the rest of the region’s cities with less-than-weekly connections or none at all.